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PREDICT IVF SUCCESS

If you are an IVF patient or consider IVF, it definately makes sense to estimate your chances for success. Not only it will make you feel more confident, but it may save you a little fortune.
Before you spend $15000-25000 for your IVF cycle, review our article "Ovarian Reserve" to understand age and fertility, ovarian reserve, and antral follicle count.
Your treatment plan should look like the following:
STEP 1: Ask your reproductive endocrinologist for Antral Follicle Test and Day 3 FSH. Antral follicle test is an ultrasound test that is done on day 2 or 3 of your period under no medication. Antral follicul count determines your "egg quantity" or if your ovaries carry enough eggs.
Follicle-stimulating hormone ( FSH ) day 3 level predicts "egg quality". If FSH is higher than normal, the eggs may not fertilize propertly, and the embryos may be of poor quality. Poor quality embryos show very low chance of implantation and high chance for early miscarriage.
STEP 2: If you have average or above average Antral Follicle Count, your chances for success can be evaluated using Pic 1, Pic 2, Pic 3. Source: Advanced Fertility Center of Chicago, 2004.
STEP 3: You can use empirical formula to predict the number of eggs that will be later retrieved:
EGGS=0.8*FA+2, where FA- Antral Follicle Count.
EXAMPLE I: If ultrasound test shows 18 folliculs (FA=18), it is very likely that you will get 0.8*18+2=16.4 eggs retrieved ( we can round it to 16).
Normally, not all eggs make embryos because some of them are of poor quality.  After fertilization, you may have 10-13  embryos of different quality at the day 3 of development ( from 2 to 8 cells each ). 
About 30% of embryos,  or 3-6 embryos, may develop into day 5 blostocysts. Blostocysts tend to score higher for implantation and birth rate, currently over 50% per transfer.
YOU CHANCES FOR IVF SUCCESS ARE VERY HIGH!
EXAMPLE II: If ultrasound test shows 2 folliculs (FA=2), it is very likely that you will get 0.8*2+2=3.6 eggs retrieved. After fertilization, you may have 0-2 embryos of different quality. You may not even have any embryos to transfer!
RECOMMENDATION: Use Donor's egg! For women with no implantation problems, IVF with Donor's Egg success rate is as high, as if she is young as her donor!
DAY 3 FSH AND PREGNANCY RATE
Day 3 FSH
Interpretation
Less than 10
Reassuring level. Expect a good response to ovarian stimulation.
10 - 12
Fair.  Response is between completely normal and somewhat reduced (response varies widely). Overall, a somewhat reduced live birth rate.
12- 15
Reduced ovarian reserve. Usually show a reduced response to stimulation and some reduction in egg and embryo quality with IVF. Reduced live birth rates on the average.
15 - 20
Generally show a more marked reduction in response to stimulation and usually a further reduction in egg and embryo quality with IVF. Low live birth rates.
Over 20
Very poor (or no)  response to stimulation. "No go" levels must be individualized for the particular lab assay and IVF center.
ANTRAL FOLLICLE COUNT AND PREGNANCY RATE
Pic 1. Antral Follicle Count and Birth rate results ( age under 35 )
Pic 2. Antral Follicle Count and Birth rate results ( age 35-39 )
Pic 3. Antral Follicle Count and Birth rate results ( age under 40-42 )



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